Structuring Analysis of Buffalo Area Drug Groups
Brainstorming
Using the brainstorming technique, the analysis of the operations of the drug trafficking cartels in the Buffalo area can be conducted by developing ideas on various forms of their operations. The team at the police intelligence department can engage in activities that require the formulation of various hypotheses on the operations. This process will incorporate a diverse team for the development of well-rounded hypotheses (Lecture Notes, n.d.). There is a consideration of good time parameters. The process will be recorded with all ideas generated being accepted. As such, this will allow for multiple hypotheses.
Devil’s Advocate
After the formulation of various hypotheses, a devil’s advocate approach can be taken into account. Through this approach, I will take an opposing side that will allow for thorough, thoughtful processes of the possible flaws in the assumptions made (Lecture Notes, n.d.). As a step in the analysis process, this is a critical point by which the various assumptions can be realized and help narrow down the long list of hypotheses that have been formulated in the brainstorming session. The debate will also enable further development of alternative hypotheses. As such, there will be more hypotheses that can be developed at the end of these two analytical processes.
Red Team
This is a critical analysis tool that will help the team have an in-depth look at the operations of the drug traffickers. The team that is developed will look at the opposition of the formulated hypotheses based on the available information of the organizations (MalcomVetter, 2018). As such, creativity and imagination is paramount in this step. The possible threats and vulnerabilities of the current police intelligence operations can also be identified. This can also allow the thinning of the multiple hypotheses developed.
Link Diagrams
This is a step that allows for the development of the graphical representation of the operations of the drug trafficking organization. Through this step, an association that exists in groups or organizations can be developed. This graphical representation can aid in the development of the most likely hypotheses from the list of multiple hypotheses developed in the earlier steps (Lecture Notes, n.d.). The various parts of the operations can be listed with clear associations existing among the people that are associated with various processes. As such, there will be a minimum number of alternative hypotheses at the end of the process.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
With the evidence from the link diagrams and the presentation of competing hypotheses, an analysis of competing hypotheses will stimulate systematic analysis of evidence, therefore, removing any denial and deception from the process (Lecture Notes, n.d.). The evidence that is presented will be compared against the hypothesis to help refine the matrix. This will allow for a sensitivity analysis which will link the most reliable evidence to the hypothesis. By doing so, the multiple hypotheses will be reduced to the most probable. This will allow for the compilation of a report for the analysis and further conclusions on the next step.
Assignment 2
| Evidence/Argument
| H1 | H2 | H3 | |
| The drug cartels are receiving fentanyl from Shanghai China through the sea | The drug cartels are receiving fentanyl from local manufacturers | Mexican drug groups are looking to have a direct route for fentanyl | ||
| 1 | Shipment intercepted from Shanghai and informant states there is a second shipment in 2 weeks time – Huang Zhi Pen suspected high-level leader at the drug organization | High | Low | High |
| 2 | Mexicans are reducing their interactions with the Chinese cartels but are still producing and looking to smuggle fentanyl – DEA Mexico Agent | Medium | Low | High |
| 3 | Chinese personnel are looking to make arrangements for a shipment by September – Coast Guard intelligence | High | Low | Low |
| 4 | Increased communication among local drug groups – by Ontario Provincial Police | Medium | High | Low |
| 5 | Increasing activity among Chinese groups in Montreal, Canada – reported by Montreal Police | High | Medium | Low |
| 6 | High volume of fentanyl expected to arrive by October – Buffalo Police Department informant | High | Low | High |
From the Matrix, we can conclude that the possible route of the Fentanyl is the direct shipment by sea from Shanghai, China.
Assignment 3
Article 1
There is a need to have an in-depth negotiation process between Iran and the United States government, where the military involvement in solving disputes is discussed with the aim of building lasting cordial relations.
Article 2
The government should engage the allied parties of India and anti-terrorism that looks to take a position on the issue for the purpose of solidifying unity for the fight against terrorism as this will promote cohesion in the midst of widespread anxiety.
Article 3
The video is aimed at creating fear and distrust among the American and anti-terrorism units by portraying a defeated army which requires reassurance to the public.
Article 4
There is a need to ensure that the protection of organizations backed by the United States is prioritized and communicated by gestures to show concern and promote support for the war of terrorism.
References
Lecture Notes (n.d.). Analytical Tools. Powerpoint Presentation.
MalcomVetter, T. (2018). Internal Red Teams and Insider Knowledge. Retrieved from https://medium.com/@malcomvetter/internal-red-teams-and-insider-knowledge-8324555aaf40