International Conflict Management Final Project
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Introduction
The dislocation of nearly 13 million Syrians, almost the nation’s half of the population is one of the most discussed humanitarian crisis. The government, as well as the wider international community, has been struggling to deal with the issue and respond to the basic requirements of the Syrian refugees along with the IDPs or internally displaced people. Hence, there is a constant need for conflict management as well as conflict resolution in the state. It is not enough to create policies or approaches. Active participation and government intervention are necessary for resolving the issues. The response of the government regarding past failures is a vital part of conflict management. A lot of underlying conditions has affected the nation, and without proper efforts and management techniques, it is hard to manage the dynamics of conflict. The trends witnessed in Syria are an example of another long-term and displacement crisis (Ferris and Kirisci, 2016). It is having serious implications for countries such as Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. Apart from that, the wider international community, along with the EU might be affected. In an attempt to resolve the conflict, it is necessary to shed light on the real causes behind it. Therefore, causes and consequences shall be understood, and reasons behind the rising tension with neighbouring states shall be explored. The chances of preventing or resolving the tension shall be determined with viable reasons.
Figure 1: The Syrian humanitarian crisis
(Source: theguardian.com, 2020)
Addressing the roots of the conflict and associated factors
History’s most noteworthy incidents are the Syrian conflict because it has created a complex situation in the nation. It is regarded as one of the most catastrophic incidents that shaped the present state of Syria. As of December 2019, 900,000 people have been displaced. Reports suggest that Syrian refugees, including children has even died from cold (Un.org., 2020). The lack of a sustainable and advanced solution has ruptured the peace and security of Syrian people. The conflict also highlights the limiting ability of the United Nations along with other regional bodies. As per the data of the World Bank, the rising death toll in Syria is the result of constant conflict within the state. Again, as of 2019, more than 5.6 million people have been officially registered as refugees (Jcpa.org, 2020). Consequently, the impact has been severe on the lives of Syrian people. Both the economic and social impact has been growing since the beginning of the conflict. Consequently, people lacked access to food, education, healthcare facilities and housing facilities. Millions of people were forced into poverty and unemployment. Along with that, trade disruptions continued and the international reserves rapidly depleted due to the pressure created in Syria.
The roots of the conflict dates back to March 2011. During that time, Syrian children had painted graffiti on public places to show their dislike and anti-government agenda. The government arrested those children and as a sign of protest, Syrian people took to the streets. The protest has been done to reflect the grievances of the Syrian population. It was not entirely directed to the President, Bashar al Assad. However, the protests have been considered as an anti-nationalist approach and the security forces started killing the civilians brutally. Research suggests that more than 500 people have been killed by June 2011 (Shalev, 2019). Following that incident, Syrian refugees started to leave the country and flew into Turkey. This can be regarded as the beginning of the official “refugee movement” and the initiation of a crisis period. The state of the conflict worsened thereafter and Kofi Annan, former UN secretary left the position of Joint UN-Arab League Special Representative without resolving the matters. Consistent failures in peace talks between the opposition and the Syrian government in Geneva are evident as well. A number of supporting efforts has been made by the UN Security Council and the International Syrian Support Group. However, a perfect political solution or concrete progress has not been witnessed. The conflict lasted because the opposition has suffered from extreme violence. They were determined to continue the fight and the role of the Syrian President, Assad in negotiation and settlement is negligible. Moreover, the civilian population has been targeted consistently by the regime and this has made the reintegration of refugees even more challenging. Further inquiry of the UN commission also illustrated that the rebels and the regime were both equally guilty of getting involved in the war crime. Consistent assaults by the military such as dropping barrel bombs and using chemical weapons to attack the civilians are noteworthy causes (BBC News, 2020). The rebel groups included the ISIS, al-Nusra Front and the Free Syrian Army. Gradually the Syrian government started losing its control over cities such as Deraa and Aleppo. However, at that time, the government had little control over the coast and Damascus. Areas such as the eastern part of Syria have been controlled by the ISIS. The complexity of the situation worsened because by that time, Syria converted into a battleground of regional wars. The regime has received consistent support and assistance from the militant groups of Iran, Russia and Lebanese. Simultaneously, the opposition forces have received support and benefits from the political groups of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.
During the civil war of almost eight years, the Islamic State has also witnessed the uncontrolled usage of chemical weapons or Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The purpose of using WMDs is to break the will of the opposition. The regime has consistently used a range of chemical weapons such as mustard gas, chlorine or even sarin nerve agent. The regime has recently used WMDs in the north-western portion of the country. In 2013, the Syrian government has used sarin in Ghouta. The chemical weapons have been used in the eastern centre of Damascus and repeatedly in Zamalka. However, the government has completely denied their involvement with the attacks after the allegations of the western nations. Furthermore, President Assad has accused the groups in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and US of using the WMD and converting Syria into a battlefield.
Figure 2: Sites in Syria reportedly attacked by WMDs
(Source: BBC News, 2020)
Rupture in social cohesion with the neighbouring states
Social cohesion can be regarded as the eagerness of societal members to stay peacefully, cooperatively and cohesively so that all of them can prosper as well as survive and mutually benefit each other. Among neighbouring countries, social cohesion is a necessity as it will ensure the growth of a prosperous and democratic society. Trust will be enforced among the governments and existing barriers due to differences in cultural practices shall reduce as well. However, the Syrian crisis is the result of poor social cohesion among states. However, various neighbouring states have given their helping hands to support the refugees during the time of crisis. Due to rising marginalization and exclusion, the humanitarian crisis in Syria continued (Yenilmez, 2017). The civilians lost a sense of belongingness, solidarity and connectedness and therefore, the community destroyed. At the time of civil war, Syrian refugees received shelter in neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey and Jordan. Settlement camps have been developed across these geographic regions. Countries has interfered and attempted to take action against Bashar Assad.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia interfered in order to meet their won concerned needs. King Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz spoke about the repression of the Syrian president in 2011. In early 2000, the Saudi’s took active steps to build and strengthen the status of the Syrian president. Moreover, the president also wanted to coordinate and cooperate with the Saudis so that both these nations can oppose the dominance of Saddam Hussein. However, in the early 2002, the relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria gradually deteriorated because Saudis’ motto was to ensure peace between Palestinians and Israel. The Saudis took supportive initiatives to end the Israeli- Palestinian conflict (Martellini and Rao, 2017). However, the Syrians refused to support this initiative and the president even wanted the Saudis to break relations with Israel. However, Assad supported Saudi Arabia in their initiative in uprising the Palestinians. It can be stated that Saudi Arabia attempted to use the concept of conflict transformation. It is a process through which interests, relationships as well as discourses can be resolved by changing the society’s constitution and focussing on resolving violent conflict. The constant conflict between Palestinians and Israelis could be resolved by cooperation and coalition and the Saudis attempted to take this approach. In response to the attempts made by the Saudis, the Syrians refused to cooperate. This is due to the fact that Syria believed that Americans led the coalition after entering Iraq in early 2003. Syria continued to show negligible support to the Gulf States and even accused them of collaboration with the Americans. Simultaneously, Washington isolated Damascus in the international arena and in the Middle East. Earlier, Saudi Arabia supported Assad, the Syrian president and even defended his position in front of the media and against the rage of the EU and the Americans (Ignatieff et al., 2016). However, following a series of events, Saudi Arabia withdrew their support from Syria. In other words, it has turned a cold shoulder to the Syrian President. Thereafter, Saudi Arabia took steps to punish the Syrian government and collaborated with the United States. It even demanded the Syrian government to withdraw the military forces from Lebanon. It is evident from the research that the dual policy of Saudi Arabia has affected Syria.
Policymakers along with scholars suggest that a failing or failed state is at a vulnerable position as it can become a breeding ground for transnational terrorism. Security is absent in such states and it poses a great threat to the civilians. Statistically, the states that have undergone consistent failures to maintain peace are more likely to commit to the creation of terrorist groups. The nationals strive towards transnational attacks and the nationals are also likely to be targeted or attacked by the terrorists as well. The case of Syria can be compared to the situation noted here. Syria can be regarded as a failed state because the actions or initiatives of the government led to the uprising Syrian Civil War (Andersen, 2016). As a response to the extreme control and dominance of the security forces, the Civilians decided to use weapons and it gave rise to terrorist gangs. Apart from the causes mentioned previously, other factors also contributed to the growth of such terrorist groups. Population growth, constraint on economic development, shortage of basic utilities and most importantly, successive draughts and prolonged issues related to the environment have led to the creation of a failed state. The members of the terrorist groups claim themselves to be activists and the matter worsened due to the constant supply of sophisticated weaponry and the constant need to use every means in order to continue war with the neighbouring states.
Determining the chances of diplomacy and political solution
The situation in Syria poses challenges for the civilians as well as the government. There is a need of conflict management. The International Conflict Management or ICM is a theory that focuses on understanding the reasons behind international conflict by considering a real conflict situation. The research and theory associated with international conflict management has been drawn from sociology, law, economics and social psychology. The assumption that ICM concepts have been drawn from political science is false. After gaining insights regarding the reasons behind Syrian conflict, it can be stated that the situation should be handled using conflict resolution strategies. The process will be useful for reducing the level of tension that is prevalent among the neighbouring states and taking consistent steps towards a peaceful pursuit. The goal should be individualistic as well as collective. Additionally, a political commitment at a global level has been done by the members of the UN (Strack, 2017). In 2005 World Summit, the member states has committed towards the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) so that major concerns at a global level including war crimes, genocide, violence against humanity and ethnic cleansing can be prevented. The Syrian humanitarian crisis can be considered as an opportunity to work towards the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) commitment. The international community can take relevant steps to act on it.
Figure 3: Key goals of R2P
(Source: cscr.pk, 2020)
The possibility of a diplomatic solution is present. The Syria Crisis can be resolved by involving Iran, Russia and China. The Asian allies of Syria can ensure lasting progress and permanent solution to the crisis (Diplomat, 2020). A political arrangement can play a crucial role in resolving the conflict. The deadly situation in Syria is due to the ongoing clashes between the armed opposition and the security forces. Killing dozens of civilians has become a common phenomenon and the struggle of the international community is still prevalent. There is a need for a roadmap towards peace and harmony in the state. Therefore, the Asian partners of Syria have consistently encouraged the Syrian regime to stop its security operations. Tehran, one of the important allies of the Syrian president has asked for a long-term political solution. This in turn will lead to violence cessation. It is vital to avoid blaming the regime for violence in the state. The need of the hour is to be objective and start noticing the approaches of the armed opposition and blame them for their deeds. An exclusive resolution means fair judgement and not exclusively blaming only one party. The Asian powers also have personal interest in this context and therefore, the nations are working towards a peaceful diplomatic resolution in case of the Syrian crisis. Military interventions in Syria might drag Iran, one of its allies and it might result into disruptions in the supply of oil (Yolcu, 2016).
Again, China and Russia will support Syria in order to resolve conflict because of their own interests. Intervention of both Russia and China will enhance the nation’s international presence. Both the nations are facing insurgency or separatist movements in their respective territories and therefore, enhancing its international presence would set the path for intervention in their own peripheries. The Asian powers have been undergoing democratic upheaval at a large scale and the economic system is highly unstable and uncertain. Therefore, in the coming years, discontent of the Chinese and Russian population is likely to increase. The three powers will be benefitted by securing the power of Syria. It would prevent the development of a failed state. The possibility of a political settlement exists and it is necessary to recognize the influence of these powers (Alam, 2019).
The United Nations is also seeking a political solution to the Syrian conflict. The conflict is in ninth year and people in Syria have been enduring the terrible suffering for eight consecutive year. Hence, active participation of the UN can be fruitful. A negotiated solution involving the members of the senior peacebuilding and political affairs of the UN can resolve the ongoing issues. It is significant to involve the opposition and the Syrian government into a deep and sustained consultation so that trust between the parties can be built within a neutral and calm environment. Furthermore, it would be effective to take concrete actions regarding the missing persons, detainees and abductees and engage them within the political process. Setting up a balanced and goal-driven constitutional committee could be a viable solution. The political settlement should be credible as well as sustainable. The United Nations can play the role of a facilitator and assure complete security and safety of various participants. As per reports, around 11.7 million Syrians still require humanitarian support, protection and assistance (Gursoy, 2018). In the Middle East, approximately 5.6 million Syrians are living as refugees and despite the reduced number of violence related incidents, more and more number of civilians is getting injured or killed due to the war.
The major areas in Syria that has been severely attacked are the north-western parts and Idlib. An agreement has been formed between Turkey and the Russian Federation (Onuk, 2018). The agreement is focussed on demilitarizing the zone, however, the despite restrictions, casualties among civilians has become an alarming concern. Incidents such as air strikes and new displacements have occurred and urban areas have been attacked by explosive devices. Hence, it is evident that managing the Syrian conflict can become a possibility. However, complete resolving can be a challenge. President Assad’s rule is still continuing and it has presented a question in front of policymakers (Mitton, 2019). Disagreements with other neighbouring states and the substantive differences will ultimately shape the future of Syrian conflict. Reality is changing everyday and the Syrian population has endured hardships along with death under the rule of Assad (Lesch, 2018). The regime of Assad can be re-established, however, it can be a morally problematic solution. Western assistance might lead to political normalization and the approach of western nations should be humanitarian rather than a self-interested approach (Phillips, 2019). An altruistic approach is necessary to manage and improve the situation in Syria.
Conclusion
The report is based on the ongoing Syrian crisis that has taken a death toll in the country. Despite the efforts of humanitarian agencies, conflict and war prevails in the nation. After conducting research regarding the causes of the conflict, it is evident that lack of an appropriate system of government and the extreme need to have control over civilians led to one of history’s greatest tragedy. Without introducing some serious and practical fundamental changes, it is impossible to control the chaotic situation. It has been understood that the Syrian civilians has went through one of the worst situations due to constant political conflict. They have been the victim of political war. Hence, in order to resolve the issue, it is necessary to take an altruistic approach and active participation of international community. Apart from providing basic aid and shelter to the refugees, governments must introduce conflict management mechanisms to deal with the issue objectively. Displacement is already a risk to life and future war and violence would be the end of the state and emergence of more powerful terrorist groups.
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