Mathematicians in Determining the Spread of Coronavirus
In the past few days, hospitals in New York have become unrecognizable with patients suffering from the pandemic. Sick patients have flocked emergency rooms and intensive care units. Isolation wards have cobbled together to host the increasing number of patients. The virus has continued to spread, and now Seattle has become the center of the disease. The US Health officials, together with the government, have directed individuals to stay indoors and wash their hands regularly to curb the spread of the virus. Scientific mathematicians have explained the spread of the virus, and they revealed that the disease would keep on spreading if people are not going to observe government and health directives.
In the early stages of the outbreak of the disease, there was uncertainty regarding the spread of the disease. But mathematicians are offering insight on how fast the infection can spread if not fully contained. For example, when the disease broke out in Wuhan China, mathematical modeling was called to analyze to determine the number of passengers in the airline and the number of people that could be infected outside the country. This was determined based on the airplanes landing in Wuhan and those living in the city and their destinations. Besides, mathematical models are used to offer interactive tools to help authorities ascertain the forms of global spread, and if border screening would be sufficient. This approach would be vital in detecting imported cases in other countries.
Mathematical modeling is also used to determine the number of people a single person can infect and how long it takes for one to show symptoms of the virus. The average number of secondary infections, which is termed as the reproductive number ‘RO,’ is used by mathematicians to determine the spread of a virus in a population where everyone is vulnerable. Numerous countries have used the approach to assess the spread of the virus using the available data. The time between which an infected person infects the other is called the serial interval. The new research and estimates have shown that the coronavirus has a serial interval of seven days. This indicates that the coronavirus has a high serial interval than influenza, which stays for around three days. However, even though coronavirus has a higher RO than influenza, its spread rate is a bit slower. Mathematical models are vital in determining the spread of a disease or virus and effective measures to be taken to counter the ailment.