Texas may become a purple state
Texas is centrally located in the United States of America. It is the second populous state in America both in terms of population and area. Its popularity makes it a strategic state, especially during electoral campaigns and also during the real voting process. Traditionally, Texas has been known to be an exceptional Republican stronghold. The popularity of the Republican Party in Texas is primarily attributed to its large stature in the presidential Electoral College and stereotypically conservative culture. However, according to a Gallup poll conducted in 2017, it was found that there was only a point gap in democrats and republicans. According to the recent trends, Texas may become a purple state, as analyzed below.
It is important to understand that Texas not purple yet. According to the elections held in 2018, Republicans lost two House seats and nearly lost a senatorial seat to democrats. However, the Republicans did not give up easily, and according to elections for Texas state House, a Republican candidate defeated a Democrat opponent though with a small margin (Saahil & Christian, 2020). The election on Texas state House candidate has got lessons for both the parties as they approach the November elections. It showed that Texas is not a winnable state for the Democrats presidential candidate for the November elections. Texas’ demographics have changed gradually hence giving Democrats a new sense of hope; the state’s Latino population has increased fourfold as compared to that of white residents. The democrats may target the Latino population who could deliver the states’ votes to them. The Latinos are opposed to President Trump’s immigration policy, and they might resolve into supporting another candidate hence giving Democrats an upper hand.
According to the recent trends, the Democratic Party can still make a Blue Texas dream a reality. In the 2016 elections, Donald Trump won the state by a seven-point margin, which was a seven-point decline from what Romney had achieved in 2012. In 2018, Beto won a senatorial seat by a three-point margin, with other down-ballot democrats coming close to winning their respective races. Recently, the Republican Party lost its most iconic politicians in Texas, such as Pete Olson, Reps. Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant, and Michael Conaway, who officially retired from the house (David, 2020). The democrats are keenly following such developments, and they are hoping that they will turn Texas purple if not blue. Despite the increase of Latinos, Texas has also witnessed the increased growth of Hispanics, causing more problems to the Republican Party. However, Democrats understand that turning Texas red by 2020 is not an easy task. Overturning Trump’s 11-point margin is still possible, but it will take extra energy and commitment from the Democrats (David, 2020). Therefore, Texas is worth investing in it, and although it will not turn purple by November’s election, they have at least reduced the popularity of Republicans in this state.
Texas is losing its position as a reliable red state for decades, and the immigrants who are flowing into this state are hastening this trend. Trump has put in place strong anti-immigrant policies, even threatening to depot the legally accommodated immigrants. The immigrants, whether legal or illegal, are, therefore, against President Trump’s administration. The main factor that is worrying the Republican political strategists is simple demographics. The Republicans are more prevalent in rural areas while they face significant competition in the urban areas from the rival Democratic Party. However, the number of people living in rural areas are shrinking while the number of people living in urban areas is increasing (John, 2020). The democrats are, therefore, worried that they might lose their popularity in the rural areas, hence giving the democrats and an upper hand.
The population of Hispanics and Latinos is increasing both naturally and through immigration. From 2010 to 2018, the population of the Hispanic Texans grew with a wide margin of 1.9 million; ironically, the population of the white non-Hispanics grew up by 484, 000 (John, 2020). Non-Hispanics immigrants are also shaping the political landscape of Texas. During the last decade, the population of Asians grew up by 473, 000 (John, 2020). According to research conducted by Pew Center, a population of more than 23 million immigrants will be eligible to vote in the next US presidential election (John, 2020). The immigrants will account for 10% of the total voters, which the highest number as compared to the other presidential elections (John, 2020). The number of registered black American voters in Texas has also increased. Such figures are worrying to republicans because President Trump’s policies are racially biased.
Considering the recent developments, there is a possibility that Texas will become a purple election. The popularity of Republicans is expected to go down, at least during the next general election. Democrats have every reason to invest in Texas, especially considering that Texas is the second populous state in the USA. The retiring of iconic Republican politicians has dealt the party a huge blow. The demographic changes witnessed in the state are expected to cause a decrease in Republican’s popularity in Texas