What will the world be like after coronavirus?
Introduction
The coronavirus pandemic has not only affected human health but has also had a toll on the economy for different states all over the world (Allen, John, et al.). In an attempt to save lives, different nations sorted to measures such as the enforcement of lockdowns or curfews. Even though these measures are aimed at curbing the spread of the virus, the actions seem to be affecting the daily livelihoods of the citizens of different nations across the world. The pandemic particularly annihilated the economy for nations that depended on activities such as transport and tourism as their primary source of income since the initial step by most countries to avert the deadly coronavirus was the closure of their borders (Carlsson-Szlezak, Philipp, Martin Reeves, and Paul Swartz). The main question, however, is how the world would look like in the next one, two, or ten years if coronavirus is to stay with us for quite some time? Will companies be in a position to hire employees generally as they did in the previous years before the pandemic? Would nations maintain strict measures to mitigate the spread of the virus? This is provocation paper focuses on how the world would look like in the future after the coronavirus pandemic.
According to (Mair), there are various possible futures of the world after the coronavirus pandemic for different nations, depending on how the different countries react to the coronavirus pandemic. In terms of economics, however, there are four possible expectations for the world as a result of the global epidemic. The possible futures include a drop towards barbarism, thorough socialism state in the world, vigorous capitalism as well as a society that is developed on mutual aid (Mair). Barbarism refers to a lack of civilization and culture within a society. Capitalism, on the other hand, refers to a political or economic system where private holders control the industries or trade to make a profit. Likewise, socialism is a political and economic and policy that insists that workers rather than individual owners should control or own the means of creating, moving, or trading wealth.
The coronavirus pandemic, just like climate change, is accelerated by the social structure. Even though different governments are seeking to reduce the spread of the epidemic, emphasis should be on why the virus spread (Mair). The need for people to earn a living makes to ignore measures such as social distancing imposed by the government to mitigate the spread of the virus. Social spaces like night clubs, sports arena as well as schools make it quite difficult for individuals to maintain the social distance between one another. The coronavirus has spread to nearly all countries, and it is therefore eminent that in for states to survive during these difficult times, unity is essential (Kingo). The aspect of the interconnection between human beings had not been clear until the pandemic struck. The social community would be required to work cohesively to mitigate the effects of the epidemic. Collective measures such as staying at home or embracing hand washing need to be appreciated by all humans (Gawande). In the same way, other worldwide challenges like climate change might hit the world even though these issues seem to be less pressing at the moment (Kingo). The same unity that would be employed in mitigating the effects of coronavirus would also be essential in reducing the impacts that climate change would have on humans. With regards to mitigating the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, measures such as lockdown and social distancing were useful in certain regions like Wuhan (Cohen, Jon, and Kai Kupferschmidt, 962). However, despite the success of these measures in such areas, the United States and the European nations were reluctant to introduce these measures in the early periods when the infection entered their countries. The political economy could be used to explain their reluctance to introduce such effective measures for them to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.
Due to the threat of recession in the economic sector, some countries have tried as much as possible to avoid a total lockdown. For example, in the United States, President Donald Trump resorted to normalizing the economy and implementing other Covid-19 abatement measures such as social distancing. Likewise, President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil resorted to easing the Covid-19 mitigation measures (Mair). The pandemic threatens to bring down the economic system, and this could be explained by the fact that the existence of the epidemic causes a strain on the production function of businesses. Due to the lack of production, the business would fail to sell, and therefore, a drop in profit would be realized. The decline in profit would also affect the citizens of the country in which the business is situated as the business would not have the ability to employ them. The pandemic would also affect non-essential workers since when the situation worsens, non-essential workers are likely to be laid off by employers (Mair).
Solidarity during this pandemic has been expressed in various ways by citizens, organizations, and states. For instance, after individuals realized that there is an interconnection in their health and welfare between them and that of their neighbors, people began looking out for one another through collectively agreeing on staying at home for them to reduce the spread of the pandemic. This measure was witnessed in countries like London. Image 1 below is a picture showing the empty streets of London.
Image 1: deserted streets of London (Mair)
Different states also showed support for their citizens through prioritizing their welfare and also through raising healthcare efforts to look after the vulnerable individuals. Likewise, companies are also looking after their employees and suppliers and ensuring that they are provided with protective gear against the pandemic. Some of the measures taken by different nations to mitigate the spread of the epidemic were considered impossible just three months before the strike of the pandemic. As stated earlier, however, by (Mair), there are four probable futures for the world after the global pandemic.
The four probable futures
A prediction of the future of a state could be made by concluding how a specific state responds to the coronavirus pandemic. Two factors contribute significantly to driving the future. These factors include centralization and value. Value is the principle that guides the economy. In value, it is essential to note what the state expects to achieve while using its resources. A state could either use its resources to make the most of life or to maximize money and exchange. On the other hand, centralization refers to the organization of things in a particular country. A country could organize different issues either by one massive, commanding force or by considering dividing the problems into numerous smaller units. There are four different ways by which a particular government could react to the pandemic. The first way is to state capitalism. State capitalism is a centralized response aimed at giving priority to the exchange value. The second way is through barbarism. This is a decentralized response to the pandemic that is aimed at prioritizing the importance of exchange and wealth maximization. Likewise, the third response to the epidemic is through state socialism. This is a centralized response that is aimed at protecting the life of the citizens of a particular state. Lastly, there is mutual aid. This is a decentralized approach that is aimed at safeguarding the life of the inhabitants of a specific nation. The four responses to the pandemic are represented in image 2 below.
Image 2: four futures (Mair)
State capitalism
State capitalism refers to an economic system where functions of production and capital use are taken over by the state. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, capitalism is faced with major crises. According to (Mazzucato), the epidemic was seen to have sparked an economic crisis that threatens financial stability while at the same time exposing the defects in the economic system for different nations. For example, some of the flaws that were presented were the infectiveness of the increase in the gig economy as it led to the rise in the precarity of employment (Mazzucato). State capitalism is, however, seen as the most employed response to the threat that the pandemic coronavirus exposes to the economy of various states. State capitalism has been witnessed in countries such as Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Spain. State capitalism allows the government to provide extended welfare to support the market as the workers are unable to work as a result of the spread of the virus (Harvey). The government also exercises state capitalism by increasing credit as well as by making direct payments to different businesses (Mair). These measures are put in place to allow companies to carry on with their activities despite the threats of the pandemic (Gong, Binlei, et al.). However, in adopting the state capitalism measure, the governments assume that the situation would return to normal in as soon as possible. Therefore, to keep employees from mixing in their workplaces, countries like the United Kingdom resorted to making payments to employees while urging them to stay away from work. In their attempt to reverting to their healthy livelihoods, the UK has permitted non-essential businesses such as construction to continue running. This puts the country at risk of an increased death toll as a result of increased infections. The economic impacts would increase, and therefore, the state would be required to take more drastic measures to maintain the normal functioning of the market.
Barbarism
This is the most unfavorable situation. When the government prioritizes the exchange value while refusing to give support to workers pushed out of employment due to the pandemic, or as a result of illness, barbarism is the most probable future (Delanty). This would lead to the failure of various businesses making the state be on the verge of a severe economic downfall. The lack of support from the government is also a threat to the healthcare industry as the hospital would become overwhelmed as a result of the increase in the number of infections. Apart from that, the probability of the rise in the death toll is also quite high. Barbarism is an unfavorable situation as it is likely to lead to the destruction of the social and political structures of a country. During the Coved-19 pandemic, barbarism could happen inadvertently, especially if the government fails to provide adequate support during the worst times. Likewise, at the peak of the epidemic, barbarism could occur intentionally (Delanty). As a result of the failure of the economy and the economic system, an increase in social and political unrest would be realized, leading to the failure of the state. Likewise, as a result of the failure in the country, the community and state welfare system would collapse. Governments should, therefore, avoid barbaric measures or responses to the coronavirus pandemic as this response seems to be detrimental.
State socialism
State socialism refers to a situation where the government controls both services and industries. Countries like Spain, the United Kingdom, and Spain resorted to state socialism measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus (ISIS). State socialism is seen when the government takes steps like the nationalization of private hospitals as well as providing and making housing affordable for its citizens. State socialism allows the government to take up the role of safeguarding essential parts of the economy such as shelter, energy as well as food production sectors. Furthermore, state socialism would also ensure that citizens are provided with the means of accessing a variety of goods, thus reducing the reliance of the citizens on employers. Likewise, some state socialism responses entail making payments to citizens to enable them survives during the coronavirus outbreak (ISIS). State capitalism, as well as the effects caused by the extension of the pandemic, is the basis of state socialism. Therefore, the most probable future when a severe economic recession occurs or when a shortage in the supply chins is realized as a result of the pandemic would be that where the state takes over the function of production. Even though this is the best approach to combating the effects that pandemic, one of the risks associated with this measure is authoritarianism (ISIS).
Mutual aid
This is another measure where the protection of life is prioritized as a principle that guides the economy. This measure is similar to state socialism except that the sate in this scenario is not involved in providing support to the groups in need. In mutual aid, individuals and small groups organize care and support for the vulnerable members of the society. According to (Solnit), the Covid-19 pandemic is the set to change the community permanently as the epidemic is likely to impart the society with values such as harmony and solidarity. Some of the activities making up mutual aid include carrying out donations as well as making contributions to provide shelter to the homeless (Solnit). Financial assistance also forms one of the activities of mutual aid. Well-wishers offer financial support to either destitute families or charity groups to enable them to facilitate their activities (Buheji, Mohamed, and Dunya Ahmed, 100). Image 3 below shows well-wishers from a mutual aid group preparing food donations.
Image 3: Mutual aid group members preparing food donations (Solnit)
The approach of mutual aid in mitigating the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic would lead to the creation of a world free from state capitalism or barbarism. It would also lead to the creation of a world that is supported by state socialism. The mutual aid approach has been successful in tacking other pandemics, such as the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa (Solnit). The mutual aid formed a foundation for the community support that is witnessed in the region. However, there are some shortcomings to this approach. One of the weaknesses is the inability of smaller groups to mobilize resources required for building or increasing healthcare facilities. The groups might also lack adequate resources to help all those in need (Solnit). However, mutual aid is essential in improving cohesion as well as harmony within the community.
Conclusion
Coronavirus has brought about many challenges to the human generation. Apart from problems on the health of individuals, Covid-19 has majorly hit the economic, political, and social systems of different states in the world. The disruption witnessed in the economic and political system could be linked to the measures taken by various states to curb the spread of coronavirus. Based on the control measures taken by the government to mitigate the spread of the virus, there are different views on how the world would look like after the Covid-19 pandemic. According to (Mair), some of the most common approaches employed by various states to reduce the spread of the virus include State socialism, mutual aid, barbarism, and state capitalism. These measures are likely to alter the future of different states, depending on the measure chosen as the most appropriate in mitigating the spread of the virus. Therefore, as stated by (Solnit), the Covid-19 pandemic can alter the social, political, and economic systems for different states in the world.
Works cited
Allen, John, et al. “How the World Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic.” Foreign Policy (2020).
Buheji, Mohamed, and Dunya Ahmed. “Foresight of Coronavirus (COVID-19) opportunities for a better world.” American Journal of Economics 10.2 (2020): 97-108.
Carlsson-Szlezak, Philipp, Martin Reeves, and Paul Swartz. “What coronavirus could mean for the global economy.” Harvard Business Review 3 (2020).
Cohen, Jon, and Kai Kupferschmidt. “Strategies shift as coronavirus pandemic looms.” (2020): 962-963.
Delanty, Gerard. “Six political philosophies in search of a virus: Critical perspectives on the coronavirus pandemic.” LEQS Paper No. 156, May 2020 156 (2020).
Gawande, Atul. “Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers.” The New Yorker (2020).
Gong, Binlei, et al. “A balance act: minimizing economic loss while controlling novel coronavirus pneumonia.” Journal of Chinese Governance (2020): 1-20.
Harari, Yuval Noah. “The world after coronavirus.” Financial Times 20 (2020).
Harvey, David. “Anti-capitalist politics in the time of COVID-19.” Jacobin, March (2020).
ISIS, R. “Socialist.” (2020).
Kingo, Lise. “What the world could look like after COVID-19.” GreenBiz, GreenBiz Group Inc, 10 April 2020, https://www.greenbiz.com/article/what-world-could-look-after-covid-19
Mair, Simon. “What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures.” The Conversation, The Conversation Africa Inc, 30 March 2020, https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?fbclid=IwAR3LuVz_lu2tPQVrhH8ygUEJGP5qEA0S38MsbS2tfd2U02LpSIg0k4J6MMk