Impact Of COVID-19 On Geopolitics Of Gulf Countries
The stability of the Gulf countries will be severely affected by external instabilities. These instabilities will be from MENA states like Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt, and neighbors like Syria and Jordan (Soliman, 2020). These activities of these neighbors affect Gulf leaders because of close proximity to each other and economic, political, and social connections. The gulf monarchies will be affected because they have always used stimulus packages like building infrastructure and financing religious organizations of these unstable states to quell any rebellion in these countries that would directly affect their power and credibility (Soliman, 2020). Of note is, the negative economic repercussions of the disease mean less spending on foreign policies, resulting in uproars, wars, and violence, and migration. Such events could inspire the gulf citizens to also rebel against their leaders, a scenario that almost happened during the Arab Spring. To avert the occurrence of Arab Spring in the Gulf region, the leaders increased people’s salaries, employment opportunities, and added more incentives to reduce the public’s wrath over the monarchies (Soliman, 2020). If the spending decreases, as is expected, there will be an uproar that could destabilize the region. The leaders of Gulf countries will be at risk of protests from their people who might be inspired by the civil unrest of their neighbors.
Furthermore, there will be geopolitical tensions resulting from geo-economic failures. The economy of the Gulf countries will be affected negatively because of the crash in oil prices. Other than the falling prices, the Gulf counties are also in cut-throat competition with Russia for oil markets, increasing the vulnerability of the economy (Soliman, 2020). Consequently, with a weak economy, the politics of the region will be adversely affected. For one, there might be retaliation from the public over unemployment and financial insecurity. Worse still, the countries could engage in unhealthy rivalry, which would destroy their relations (Soliman, 2020). The contention could emerge over oil prices and markets. This competition could extend to imports and foreign markets. If not resolved, the economic instability will cause political animosity that will destabilize the entire region.
Conversely, the states are expected to be more powerful after the pandemic. Duclos and Karoui (2020) note that the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar will be very powerful after the epidemic. For one, the financial reserves of these nations are substantial, and they have very little debt. Duclos and Karoui (2020) illustrate that Saudi Arabia’s debt is 25% of its GDP, and has robust debt capacity, even if it sold oil at $25 per barrel. The revenues from the oil would be enough to sustain the country after the pandemic. These gulf countries would be very powerful in the region, especially since their neighbors have been negatively affected by the epidemic. Iran’s economy, for example, will be devastated and very weak, which is also the same case for Lebanon (Duclos & Karoui, 2020). The Gulf countries will not only be stable politically but will have more political and economic influence in the larger Middle East. Hence, the national security of the Gulf nations would be guaranteed.
Evidently, the COVID-19 pandemic will have consequences for the geopolitics of gulf counties. The gulf leaders are likely to be affected by the instabilities of their neighbors, which would undermine their power. At the same time, social upheavals from their citizens would limit completing administrative activities. Further, as the economy weakens, the cohesion of leaders will be destroyed. Even so, the Gulf countries might emerge more powerful than they were before the pandemic.
References
Duclos, M. & Karoui, H. (2020). Is Covid-19 a Game-Changer for the Middle East and the Maghreb?. Institut Montaigne. Retrieved from https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/covid-19-game-changer-middle-east-and-maghreb.
Soliman, M. (2020). COVID-19, the oil price war, and the remaking of the Middle East. Middle East Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mei.edu/publications/covid-19-oil-price-war-and-remaking-middle-east.