Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless
COVID-19 Epidemic
In December 2009, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China. COVID -19 is the pneumonia of unknown cause and was first detected in Wuhan, China, on 31st December 2019. Since the disease was discovered, it has spread to other parts of the world, leading to a total lockdown of the global economy. The whole world is fully engaged in the ongoing fight against COVID-19 Pandemic, with countries coming together to discuss the response strategies that they have put in place to fight the disease. There is a lot of sharing of information about COVID-19, but the mystery remains on the tabulation of the affected individuals. Statistics especially, the number of reported cases, are not real as concerns being raised on the reporting frameworks. Thus, the paper discusses why the COVID model that is currently used is incomplete and is likely inaccurate information
Analysis of COVID-19 Model
In order to examine population mixing and the number of people affected by COVID-19, a common model of epidemiology should be used across the world. This will assist in getting results that are representative of the entire population. The failure to account for testing strategies and the use of one method of data tabulations has continuously resulted in having inaccurate or wrong information of COVID-19 victims. There is a lot of uncertainty about the number of individuals affected by the disease. The current model has either led to underestimation or overestimation of the affected individuals with statisticians indicating that the numbers can be exaggerated as two times the reported numbers or be underestimated. The variation in the numbers is alarming and raises more questions about the estimated number of affected individuals. The number of individuals affected by the disease in the UK by the end of March was reported at 22, 141. However, statisticians have disputed the numbers with the actual numbers reported to be between 800 000 and 3.7 million as compared to the 22,141 that the government reported. The same applies to the United States, where the numbers also seem to be less than the reported numbers. Failure to account for testing strategies have rendered comparisons between states and countries meaningless that is according to the two recent epidemiological studies of different countries that reveal a major variation in the number of affected individuals across the world. The figures make maths behind coronavirus testing hard to understand due to lack of a fairly simple but standard epidemiological model to use to estimate the world’s population affected by a coronavirus.
Based on the statistics presented in the worksheet, there are many things that do not add. For instance, a country like the US by March had reported fewer number of cases of coronavirus infections as compared to other countries such as Spain and Italy while the reality on the ground was that the US could be having more numbers of infections if the same epidemiological model is to be used across the world. Another reason for the variation in the numbers probably could be on the basis of the spread of the disease. There is a city that is severely hit compared to others. However, this may not be representative of the whole country. For instance, it would be wrong to use the data of the affected individuals in Wuhan, China, to estimate the total number of affected people in China is wrong. Therefore, country estimates can also give wrong results as indicated by the above case study because there are remote areas that are not affected by the disease as compared to other areas. Going forward, there is a need to modify the current model used to calculate COVID-19 cases and the reporting framework to represent regions and not a representative of the entire population of a country. This can help identify the most affected regions and develop appropriate response measures to tackle the spread of the disease to other regions.
COVID-19 Response Strategies
There is no better way of fighting COVID-19 than creating awareness about the disease and formulating various strategies to fight the disease. Some of the key strategies of fighting the disease include maintaining social distance. The disease is spread by coming into contact with the affected individual or surface. The best method of fighting the disease is to minimize body contact with the affected individual, and the best way of doing so is to maintain social distance between one another and to avoid overcrowded places. The government has maintained its calls to have people stay at home and avoid places where there are many people such as streets, marketplaces, churches, among other places.
Individuals are reminded to wash their hands all the time (sanitize themselves) to keep themselves away from the disease or infectious place. Individuals who are suspected to be having the signs of the disease should report to the nearest health facility for a check-up or put themselves into self-quarantine as they wait to be tested on the disease. Although these are not the only measures, but can help fight this monster called COVID-19.